One in three could get swine flu
15 May 2009: Although the hype over swine flu seems to have died down, some experts say it could still become a full pandemic.
Experts say the flu is likely to spread further in autumn and winter, when viruses transfer from person to person more easily. It could also mix with normal seasonal flu and spread more quickly.
Researchers at Imperial College London think that 1 in 3 people who come into contact with the virus will get it.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who lead the research, said: 'Our study shows this virus is spreading just as we would expect for the early stages of a flu pandemic.'
And he thinks that doctors and hospitals will become overworked after summer: 'We would expect this pandemic to at least double the burden on our healthcare systems.'
Professor Furguson added that swine flu is spreading in a similar way to the Asian flu pandemic in 1957, which killed around 2 million people worldwide. However, it's not as lethal or as easily transmitted as Spanish flu, which killed 50 million people between 1918 - 1920.
Over 30 countries have now reported cases on swine flu. There are 65 confirmed cases in the UK.
Sources: Imperial College London, World Health Organisation, BBC News, Sky News
More information on swine flu
- Everything you need to know about swine flu
- How the UK will cope with a flu pandemic
- Swine flu advice for all UK homes
- Swine flu: how it could affect you
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By Katie McPhilimy
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